The next big thing

September 2022

There are few things, in my experience, quite so transient as ‘the next big thing.’  Nowhere is this more palpable than in the uncertain world of social media, by which I mean the likes of Twitter, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.

You may have tried some of them, but if you haven’t, I wouldn’t worry; most will probably be gone soon.

That may sound rather doom-laden, but if the past is any guide, I’m right.  Wikipedia has a list of over 150 defunct social media platforms, and I bet that it is far from comprehensive.

For example, if you’ve been using the internet for twenty years you may recall Friends Reunited; at it’s peak it had over 20m users, but it’s gone now, overtaken by Bebo (also gone) and Facebook, the one great survivor.

Or perhaps you recall the more recent site Vine, on which you shared video clips.  It was once very popular - over 200m users – but it’s gone now.

Not even the biggest beasts get it right.  Google launched Google+ (a copy of Facebook), Apple tried with iTunes Ping (a cross between Facebook and Twitter).  Almost nobody used either of them and they were quickly shut down.

So, why do they fail?  As ever, it all comes down to money; if a site can generate cash it will survive, if it can’t it won’t.

There are only really three ways that these sites can earn: charge the viewers a subscription, accept advertising, or take a slice of the money that third parties make from using the platform.

The subscription model is dead in the water, people just won’t pay.  Advertising does work (look at Facebook) but is very irritating.  On top of that, in the name of privacy, Apple and Google are planning to switch off tracking cookies, which allow the same adverts to chase you around the internet, so it’s going to become less effective anyway.

So, platforms need to find other ways of generating income.  One method is to allow others to use your platform to make money for themselves and take a slice.  In other words, turning themselves into a sort of shopping channel.  This is known as livestream ecommerce and it’s likely that sales of this kind will top £350 bn this year in China alone.

The biggest player in this field, at the moment, is the Chinese owned TikTok, which allows anyone to upload short videos of any kind and, if they want to, sell you stuff.  The chef Gordon Ramsey produces many very slick little films of this sort. 

TikTok is astonishingly popular; by one measure, in 2021 the TikTok website was visited more often than Google, even though it is blocked in some countries like India and Pakistan.

Typically, the British have resisted this sort of fast, fairly high-pressure selling but I imagine we will succumb.  The platforms love it; not only do they get a slice of the money that you fork out to buy things, but your purchase allows the platform to gather more data on you, and hence to decide what advertising to show you, thus avoiding the problems of the demise of tracking cookies.

So, what of the future?  At the moment, I think I can safely say that, in social media land, TikTok is leading the pack and forcing others to adapt in its image.

For the moment, anyway.  TikTok is certainly the current big thing but we don’t know if it makes money; the rather cloudy Chinese ownership prevents us finding out.  If you want to see what the fuss is about, maybe you should look at TikTok, whilst it’s still around.

Or you might prefer just to wait for the next big thing; it won’t be long now, I assure you.